World Tourism on Track for a Rebound in 2010
The global tourist industry should recover strongly in 2010 after the economic crisis and the swine flu pandemic produced “one of the most difficult years" for the sector, said UNWTO Secretary General Taleb Rifai in a press conference in World Tourism Organisation.
Growth returned to international tourism in the last quarter of 2009 contributing to better than expected full-year results, according to the latest edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. According to annual World Tourism Barometer, international tourist arrivals fell by an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2009 but should rebound to grow by 3.0 to 4.0 per cent in 2010. It said growth in the sector returned in the last quarter of 2009 contributing to better than expected full-year results, led by the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. “Still, 2009 is considered to be one of the most difficult years that tourism has seen for a long time”, said Taleb Rifai.
“The global economic crisis aggravated by the uncertainty around the A(H1N1) pandemic turned 2009 into one of the toughest years for the tourism sector”, said the UNWTO Secretary-General. “However, the results of recent months suggest that recovery is underway, and even somewhat earlier and at a stronger pace than initially expected”, he added.
Experience shows that tourism earnings generally follow the trend in arrivals quite closely, even if they suffer somewhat more in difficult times. Based on the trends through the first three quarters, receipts for 2009 are estimated to have decreased by around 6 per cent. While this is unquestionably a disappointing result for an industry accustomed to continuous growth, it can also be interpreted as a sign of comparative resilience given the extremely difficult economic environment.
Against the backdrop of both the upturn in international tourism figures and overall economic indicators in recent months, UNWTO forecasts a growth in international tourist arrivals of between three per cent and four per cent in 2010. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just recently stated that the global recovery is occurring “significantly” faster than expected.
By region, Asia is expected to continue showing the strongest rebound, while Europe and the Americas are likely to recover at a more moderate pace. Growth is expected to return to the Middle East while Africa will continue its positive trend benefiting from the extra boost provided by the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa.
These improved prospects are confirmed by the encouraging steep rise in the UNWTO Panel of Experts’ Confidence Index for 2010, despite persistent uncertainties regarding the global economy and the operating environment for tourism.
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