ITB World Travel Trends Report 2009
Asian Travel Demand Slows,
Bright Spots Remain
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Rolf Freitag
CEO, IPK International |
Asia's final outbound travel figures for 2008 and prospects for 2009 have been revealed in the ITB World Travel Trends Report 2009 which was presented at ITB Future Day on March 11, 2009. Internet bookings will surge, demand for online virtual, meetings will gather pace, domestic travel will stay stable or grow, as will demand for low cost flights. Destinations adjacent to big travel markets will do not so bad, long haul travel will fall sharply and the most pain will be felt in the business travel and MICE sectors. These were the predictions for 2009 unveiled by IPK International's CEO Rolf Freitag, in the Report.
As the final numbers on Asia's 2008 tourism performance are tallied, preliminary results from different sources suggest that the winners in terms of inbound tourism included Indonesia with 17 per cent and Macau with ten per cent. Southeast and South Asia tied for best performing sub-region, with average increases of four per cent each.
Yet the general trend for Asia, usually a star performer in terms of both inbound and outbound international travel, was very mixed in 2008 due to rising fuel costs and surcharges. Inbound international arrivals growth of six per cent from January to June 2008 turned to a two-three per cent deficit in the second half, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), as economic clouds gathered and the oil price hikes hit home.
Economic weakness in Asia has implications for the rest of the world. Japan is still the only Asian outbound travel market to rank among the world's top ten source countries for travel and tourism. The Japanese made an estimated 16.5 million trips in 2008 - a 1.5 million drop on 2007. While China's official outbound trip count is much higher, at around 40 million, some 70 per cent of these trips are to Hong Kong and Macau, Special Administrative Regions of China. Non-Hong Kong and Macau outbound trips were 13-14 million, according to IPK. Official Chinese data says this was still 14 per cent up on 2007. Residual travel demand from China in 2009, despite rapidly slowing economic growth, will mean China remains a much sought-after source market this year.
Based on 500,000 travel interviews in 58 countries around the world, IPK delivered a wide-ranging forecast. In the predictions, IPK suggested that 2009 will see travel declines in most markets, with 2010 neutral and small growth likely in 2011 and 2012. European and North American markets will be more adversely affected compared to other regions of the world. IPK predicts that China, India and all of Latin America will record GDP and travel demand growth, even in 2009. However, those growth figures will be smaller than the precedents set over the last 10 years.
While Turkey, USA, Austria and UK all received strong growth in arrivals numbers from European travellers in 2008, IPK predicts they are unlikely to do so again this year.
In households that earn more than 20,000 Euro a year, travel will remain a high priority, according to IPK. However, households earning less than 20,000 Euro are much more likely to adjust travel plans towards cheaper and / or domestic trips.
Freitag pointed out that travellers are increasingly using the internet, not just to find information, but to book and pay for holidays. The internet as a travel tool will continue to grow in 2009.
To help them face the economic downturn, which is likely to go on longer than previously predicted, Freitag said companies should reduce costs, go on a price cutting offensive, enter into partnerships with the public sector, communicate new attractions more aggressively and intensify e-marketing and e sales initiatives. Companies with good asset security can take advantage of low interest rates to borrow money and invest for the upturn which will eventually come, he said.
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