Bruised Asian Travel Industry Recovering Slowly
Asian travel demand will close five per cent down for 2009 in part due to sharp declines in travellers from South Korea. Longhaul destinations such as Europe are being hit hardest as Japanese, Chinese, Indians and Thais also choose to stay home or travel within Asia.
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Dr Martin Buck
Director-Competence Center
Travel & Logistics, Messe Berlin |
Travel demand for 2010 is likely to pick up, but spending is likely to lag at around 2005-2006 levels. Prospects for 2010 will be greatly determined by any return of consumer confidence in Japan and China.
These are just some of the key trends highlighted in the latest ITB World Travel Trends Report, commissioned by Messe Berlin, the organisers of ITB Berlin, and compiled by IPK International.
The ITB World Travel Trends Report find ings show that Asian travel demand averaged a more than a 10 per cent decline January-June.
However, some market recovery has been recorded since July 2009, indicating that the Asian travel industry is over the worst. IPK forecasts of a total-year decline of five per cent.
Even within Asia, the once high-flying low cost airline sector suffered in 2009. Despite rock-bottom airfares, the sector has experienced capacity cuts, which resulted in lower seat availability and, inevitably, rising airfares.
According to Dr Martin Buck, Director-CompetenceCenter Travel & Logistics, at Messe Berlin, the big question now is, how sustainable are the first signs of recovery in Asia? “Analysts are divided,” he said. “Some see a second dip into recession. Others think government stimulus packages have got us through the worst of it. The price of oil and the threat of H1N1 are unknown factors.”
“The report predicts a modest increase in outbound trip volume for Asia, but expenditure and yield levels will still be at pre-2008 levels. Within Asia we can still expect to see shorter, cheaper trips, closer to home and at off-peak times,” he added.
The report also predicts that, globally, business travel will stay flat, with many companies saying they had introduced stricter travel policies. One consequence is likely to be a rise in the price of economy tickets as airlines losing money at the front end of the plane raise economy class tickets to compensate.
The findings in the ITB World Travel Trends Report were based on the assessments of 60 tourism experts from 30 countries, on a special IPK International trend analysis undertaken in leading source markets, and on core data supplied by the World Travel Monitor®, recognised as the largest ongoing survey of global travel trends in some 60 source countries.
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